The dynamics and factors of production of the world food supply
World food production is growing rapidly. Only in the 80-90 years of the last century, it increased by 1,7 times and surpassed population growth. In industrialized countries, food production increased by 16% and per capita – by 2%. In developing countries, the overall growth of production in these years went fast, and production has increased by 90%. This shift was achieved great increase in agricultural output, especially in China and India (155 and 76% respectively). Also significantly increased agricultural production per capita – 15%. This positive process involved, not all regions of the developing world. In Africa, the Middle East, the level of per capita output fell.
Adverse changes have occurred in countries with economies in transition. In Eastern European countries and former Soviet Union has been a significant decline in production as a whole and per capita. In the 90 years agricultural production has declined each year by more than 6%.
The total increase in world food production, favorable structural changes in production were accompanied by other positive phenomena, in particular, significant over the past half century the cost reduction in production of major food products.
Next, consider the sources and factors of production.
The starting point of agricultural production are land resources. Large land resources are available in Australia, North America and New Zealand (respectively 671, 155 and 69 ha per person employed in agriculture). In Western Europe the corresponding figure is less than 12 hectares. Among developing countries, no region has the land resources such as North America and Australia. Only in Latin America has a relatively high rate of agricultural land per person – 13,8 ha. In developing countries as a whole at one villager has only 2.2 hectares, all in the world – 3,7 hectares of agricultural land.
No less important is the amount of cultivated land (arable land). In recent decades, it is consistent with population growth in the world and remained at a level of 0.24 hectares per capita. But in poor countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America has been reduced use of agricultural land. Under these conditions, an increase in production is ensured through the intensification of production:
1. A major factor in increasing production was chemicalization agriculture. Application of chemical fertilizers, pest control, weed control delivers up to 40% of measured total increase in yield of major crops.
If in 1973 around the world on 1 hectare of arable land and perennial crops been made to 60 kg, then in 2005-2007.- 94 kg of fertilizer. The largest dose of mineral fertilizers used in the Far East and European countries. In industrialized countries in recent years under the influence of the environmental movement of the use of mineral fertilizers decreased from 123 to 116 kg per 1 hectare. In small quantities apply fertilizer in African countries – 10,8 kg per 1 hectare of arable land in Russia – 14-16 kg.
2. Important source of growth in agricultural production was agricultural irrigation.
In 2005-2007. the world’s irrigated arable land 18,8% (1980 – 14,9%), but they gave about 40% of all agricultural products.
The highest rates of irrigation land in South Asia (39%), East Asia and the Middle East (35%). In the countries of sub-Saharan Africa is irrigated by 4,3% of arable land.
3. Significant contribution to the intensification of agricultural production brought scientific breeding, especially the creation of high-yielding hybrid and genetically modified varieties of grain and forage crops. Their use in plant breeding has identified an increase in grain yield by more than 1 / 3. Global average cereal yields exceeded 2.8 tons per hectare.
Over the last quarter of XX century. Agricultural production became more intense, not only in developed but also in developing countries. Increased agricultural production has improved world food security in the world. World food production varies from year to year. In general, small changes in world production show that food shortages in some countries did not create insurmountable obstacles in the global food system. The resultant shortfall could have counterbalanced the increased production in other countries.
Reliability of food supplies globally threatened by four major hazards in this century:
1) deterioration in climatic conditions,
2) depletion of water and fossil energy resources,
3) Soil degradation,
4) economic liberalism.
In connection with what now proceed to consider the third issue of the lecture.