THE NEED FOR PLANNING AND FORECASTING IN THE MARKET ECONOMY
Importance of planning, achieving and sustaining high rates of economy gical growth to ensure a higher standard of living, constantly and regularly increasing.
Formation of market relations in the Republic of Tatarstan does not exclude the need for vision for the future of its economic and social development.
W ith any economic system, any form of property planning and forecasting activity is an objective necessity. This is especially important in a market economy, when companies should ask before cha stand in competition, to consolidate or increase their market share, often appearing to resist the influence of adverse external factors. No coincidence, therefore, that the largest enterprises in most developed countries have a high level of planning their activities.
Defining the role of planning in ensuring effective operation of enterprises in market economy conditions underscore many prominent experts in Western countries. Clearly define the objectives of the enterprise and the conditions for achieving them, the mutual alignment and harmonization of industrial, financial and other indicators, coordination of units – these and other elements of planning does not depend on the system of economic relations in the republic, they are necessary for a company under any circumstances. Prominent scientists – criticism of central planning B. Brutskus, FA Hayek and others have criticized not planning as such, namely directive central planning, undermining the foundations of entrepreneurship, adaptation of production to the changing needs of the market. Subordinate to the legislative targets and indicators planned economy of coercion can not be effective, not to mention the fact that it undermines the path of political dictatorship. Back in the mid 40-ies. Bu duschy Nobel Laureate FA Hayek, conclusively proved that “if the purpose of the organization to put on a uniform plan consistently strive to realize in practice, the road to totalitarianism is provided.
B. Bruchkus and FA Hayek were not opposed to planning in general, and against the plan, the overwhelming competition, initiative and independence, which resulted in an economy of coercion.
No policy set from above is not needed. Although some recommendations, guidelines in the form of indicators of the indicative plan would be useful. At the same time, the overall economic forecast of macroeconomic indicators is needed. And already based on it is expedient to develop a recommendation, the indicative, but in any case not prescriptive plan. And this applies not only to private enterprises, but also to the public as well as deprive them of opportunities responsive to the changing market situation, which ultimately lead to bankruptcy.
Extremes are not necessary, mechanical denying the usefulness of any planning just as harmful as its amplification. Planning – an essential element of management in any activity. Deny or downplay the role of planning – is equivalent to deny or downplay the role of management.
Forms and planning methods may be different, they depend on many factors: the external and internal conditions of activity, industry sector enterprises, scale, composition and interests of owners and others. “Cram” all forms of planning activities into a single binding, “conventional” methods should not be. Occurring in the economic literature of (often referring to a famous authority) on the presence in Western countries united, the existing system of corporate planning groundless. You can only talk about the presence of considerable experience of corporate planning, implemented in various forms in the presence of a number of common of proven principles and approaches. Under any circumstances planning is the organic unity of the two basic elements – the definition of the objectives of the company and the means to achieve them.
The problem of forecasting and planning over the last decades of XX century have been especially difficult because of rapid changes in the economy.
Planning – the process of management decision, based on the processing of background information and includes a choice and academic goal-setting, the choice of means and ways of achieving them through a comparative evaluation of alternatives and select the most appropriate one in terms of expected development. It should be borne in mind that the essence of planning is not in developing and bringing multiple indicators to performers, as in the scientific formulation of the objectives of future development and the development of effective means for their actual achievements. The planning process involves the actual development plans, organize their implementation and monitoring of implementation. The result of planning is the plan – to motivate a model of action, founded on the basis of the scientific, technical, economic forecasts and goals.
Prediction – this is the process of developing the forecast, built on a probability, science-based judgments about the prospects of an object in the future, its possible states, as well as on alternative ways to achieve it.
Probabilistic nature of forecasts gives an indication of a possible state of the economy development of the republic in the future, alternative ways of its development, to justify the choice of the most appropriate option. In this sense, the prediction should be viewed as an obligatory attribute of long-term planning. Due to forecasts it is possible at various levels of government make evidence-based long-term plans for economic and social development, identify the needs of internal and external markets.
Under the methodology, planning and forecasting system is understood approaches, principles, indicators, methodologies and techniques to develop and justify predictions and planning decisions, as well as the logic of planning and forecasting. The methodology is based on economic theory, which studies the regularities and laws of social development, the main points and trends in reproduction processes, and developing and progressing with the development of the economic theory.
If the plan reflects a specific decision concerning a planned object, the prediction gives a probabilistic estimate of its future state, various ways and means of its development, or serves as a basis for making planning decisions.
The most important principle of planning is the principle of efficiency of social production, which requires that all goals and objectives of planning conducted at the lowest cost, ie the maximum economy of living and embodied labor in the production unit of output, jobs and services. It is implemented through various forms and areas of resource and is manifested through a system of performance indicators: productivity growth, reduction of material inputs of production and increase returns on assets and so on.
The principle of efficiency of social production is especially important to plan for the Economy in Transition.
The author of the article: EF Amirov